In this paper we assess the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on the US Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and CMBS market, including both agency CMBS and non-agency CMBS. While we can’t predict how soon the virus will be contained or give a projection of economic scenario, we provide analysis on how each CRE sector might be affected by the pandemic, with focus on hotel and retail sectors, which may see delinquencies rising sharply and put pressure on non-agency CMBS deals. Multifamily may not experience significant impact in the short term, and the agency CMBS market is directly supported by TALF 2.0 and GSE forbearance.
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