MONTHLY REPORTS - SEPTEMBER 2023
Fixed Income Insights is available in four versions, accessible from the links above. Each report uses a different currency for measuring returns and other metrics, as well as delivering localized content.
Are fixed income markets preparing for a return to Goldilocks?
Bond market focus shifted to resilient growth in August, as yields rose. Similarities with the Goldilocks era are emerging as inflation cools, and growth recovers. If 3-6% rates are the new normal, income and carry may supplant duration as key factors. Chinese government bonds and US high yield credit were best performing sectors.
- Macro and policy backdrop – Lower inflation but focus shifts to G7 growth and stronger nominal GDP
- Yields, curves and spreads – Yields, and curves start to resemble the Goldilocks era of 2002-06
- Sovereign and climate bonds – JGB underperformance, after curve control eases, may weigh on sovereign greenium
- Performance – Longer duration sovereigns fell in August, apart from China and EM bonds
These reports provide actionable insights on global fixed income markets. They cover shifts in global yield curve and credit spreads, across sovereign, inflation-linked and corporate indexes, and FX-adjusted return performance using proprietary month-end data from our global fixed income indices.
Fixed Income Insights is part of a series of Market Maps reports, subscribe to our Market Maps reports here.
For specialist content on a range of investment topics, including macroeconomic analysis and how it affects market performance, and multi-asset analysis, viewed through our indices and data, explore our Global Investment Research hub.
Webinar – Global & Regional Fixed Income Insights: quarterly deep dive - Thursday September 21, 2023
Robin Marshall, Director, Fixed Income and Multi-Asset Research
Sandrine Soubeyran, Director, Global Investment Research
Join the authors of this report on their webinar to hear the answers to key questions facing investors in fixed income markets:
- Does the recent inflation shock mean the era of zero interest rates is over?
- Have markets re-entered a world of higher policy rates in which investor focus will shift away from duration, and back to maximising carry, yield and re-investment income?
- How would a deep debt deflation in China impact the global fixed income outlook?
- Do labour shortages and steeper Phillips curves mean central banks will be forced to raise inflation targets, to prevent deep recessions?