2019年は、世界の株式市場がいたるところで大きく上昇し、第4四半期の大幅ラリーで締めくくりとなりました。こうした好調はFTSE Russellインデックスのパフォーマンスにも反映されています。米国大型株のインデックスであるRussell 1000® Indexのリターンは31％を超え、その他の先進国や新興国市場の株式も同様に高いリターンを上げました。
2020年も世界の市場は同様の上昇となるでしょうか。いつものことながら、市場の将来を見通す水晶玉は存在しませんが、FTSE Russellの世界市場リサーチ担当マネージング・ディレクターのアレック・ヤングは、2020年の米国と世界の株式市場のリターンに影響し得る要因について次のようにコメントしました。
「第4四半期には、世界の経済成長への楽観の高まり、米中貿易協議の進展、世界の緩和的な金融環境といった要因がリスク選好度を押し上げ、米国と世界の株式インデックスは記録的な高水準に達しました。2019年は金融市場にとって特別な年となりましたが、年初時点の水準が2018年第4四半期の大幅下落後で低かったことにより、リターンがかさ上げされたという面もあります」
「2020年を展望すると、リスク資産の人気が続くならば、世界経済の見通しは引き続き改善するはずです」とヤングは述べています。「投資家が期待して注目するものとして、先行経済指標のさらなる改善や、米中貿易協議のさらなる進展、英国のEU離脱のソフトランディングへの兆候が挙げられます。また、2020年米大統領選に向けての民主党候補者指名争いの行方と、米連邦準備理事会（FRB）、欧州中央銀行（ECB）、日銀、中国人民銀行（PBOC）が金融緩和を継続する兆候も注目ポイントです。最後に、地政学的な不透明感がいつでも経済の見通しを曇らせる可能性があることから、この要素を潜在的な変動要因として完全に除外することは決してできません」
アレック・ヤングとFTSE Russellの世界市場リサーチ・チームの洞察は、直近の月次パフォーマンス・レポートFTSE Market Mapsでご紹介しています。
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