Coronavirus: mapping the impact

Since COVID, it's been the best of times and the worst of times for US leisure stocks

The causes and ripples effects of the US dollar downdraft in July

Is COVID-19 a hurdle or a ramp for more climate-based investment?

The skyward flight of US valuations continued into July, with forward PEs near 15-year peaks, posing a headwind to further gains in returns.

In an unusual twist, emerging market sentiment has decoupled from that of developed peers. What's that all about?

Quality and Profitability market factors have continued to lead US equity markets this year, despite a brief rally in Size during the second quarter, according to the recent factor insights from global index provider FTSE Russell.

FTSE Russell Head of Canada Paul Bowes and FTSE Russell Director of Fixed Income Research Robin Marshall recently spoke to Canada clients and the news media about the Canada fixed income markets. In a program entitled “Looking Through the Apocalypse: Canadian fixed income, QE and economic recovery.”

The Quality factor remained dominant in Q2 despite the robust rotation into riskier smaller cap (Size), as defensive undercurrents persist.

Despite a return in risk appetite in the second quarter, long duration government bonds have remained the top performing fixed income asset in 2020.

Signals of extreme market confidence or fear have proved helpful in gauging contrarian turns in equity markets.

Viewed under a broader set of measures, US valuations look far less elevated than many may think.

The COVID-19 crisis has impacted asset valuations, increased volatility and led to reduced liquidity in many cases. Most asset classes have been affected, and governments have stepped in to support financial operations. In this paper, we examine the effects of the crisis on the year-to-date liquidity of USD corporate bonds, as measured by the price liquidity ratio.

The ebbing flow of negative EPS revisions puts a positive light on consensus expectations for a sharp global recovery next year.

Despite the appearance of some normalization in the US housing market, a close examination suggests a number of COVID-19 related structural challenges.

How has CMBS performed since COVID-19?

Credit markets extended the April rally in May, with spreads narrowing further versus government bonds, driven by renewed risk appetite, and central bank QE programs. But there is a notable divergence in the performance of Canadian investment grade and high yield spreads in 2020...

Growing optimism fuels a strong rotation into riskier Size and Value factors in May, denting enthusiasm for defensive Low Vol and Quality.

US small caps have been the biggest beneficiaries of the global risk-on rally as economies begin to reopen.

Global equities continued to rally in May, and US stocks led the way. The scale and concentration of top-performing US sectors explain this outperformance.

Philip Lawlor, MD Global Markets Research, draws upon key observations from the recently published 'Market Maps' Monthly Performance Report to discuss different perspectives of the Covid-19 impact, why US equities have outperformed in the risk rally, R1000 and R2000 performance, REIT and Environmental Opportunity index performance, factor rotation and correlation analysis.

EPS-boosting buybacks have played a major role in supporting equity prices in the US. The pandemic threatens to put that on hiatus.

PE multiples have fully recovered from their March lows, as markets look past today's bleak economic terrain to the brighter post-lockdown days ahead. But have they gotten ahead of themselves?

This week, Philip Lawlor, MD Global Markets Research, reviews key data points from the Market Maps Equity Market Drivers report to provide insight into the impact of debt financing on recovery, what’s happening to the EPS cycle, diminishing prospects for dividends and buybacks, and elevated valuations.

The COVID-19 crisis could be a boon for smart sustainability strategies

This week, Philip Lawlor, managing director, Global Markets Research, FTSE Russell provides perspective and analysis on global bond markets.

Financial conditions have eased substantially in the US, UK and Canada. Why is there such a marked difference in the development of financial conditions?

Global credit markets rode a resurgence in risk appetite in April, bolstered by Fed and ECB plans to extend asset-buying programs to include lower-grade debt. But credit challenges remain.

Among alternative indexes, those focused on environmental and social themes performed best in the April rally and the year so far, with the US ahead of its global counterparts.

Philip Lawlor, MD, Global Markets Research examines the recovery in risk appetite, why US equities dominated global equity market returns, notable differences in sector weighted performance contributions across the regions, performance of alternative indices and more.

With their respective overweight in outperforming technology and healthcare stocks, the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 lead the way in the global equity relief rally in April.

As attention starts to shift towards when and how the lockdown exit will be implemented, there are a litany of important questions and themes that needs to be considered in a post-lockdown world.

In a year with few bright spots for global equity markets amid the Global Pandemic, China has provided some relative upside – or less downside – for investors according to the FTSE Global RIC Capped Indexes.

Some commentators have expressed concern about a wave of Emerging Market (EM) debt defaults, based on the scale of the Covid-19 shock, declines in commodity prices, the expansion in EM debt since the GFC, the strong US dollar and inadequate public health systems.

Some of the big questions facing a post lockdown world. Philip Lawlor, MD, Global Markets Research looks at the impact of lower trend growth, the role of the central banks and whether the Fed could end up buying equities, and if supply shortages will produce an inflation problem.

The sheer scale of the economic contraction caused by the coronavirus shock and Great Lockdown is emerging, although much still depends on the length of the Lockdowns, unemployment levels, business survival rates and how far consumer behavior adjusts.

Stock valuations have bounced back strongly this month. But with the profit outlook still opaque and more downward revisions likely, forward PEs offer only a hazy reading of current market values.

An examination of the performance of the Low-Vol factor during the COVID-19 market fall.

Which factors influenced Russell 1000 in Q1?

The Covid-19 crisis has slowly pervaded equity markets. The Russell 1000 hit an all-time high on February 19, before beginning its precipitous slide.

Earnings forecasts for 2020 have been slashed and widespread profit recessions are now the consensus view. But this looks to be only the beginning of the downhill journey for earnings forecasts.

How have factor strategies performed #coronavirus crisis?

Given the recent dislocation of global supply chains, some commentators have raised the prospect that inflation will return as aggregate demand recovers, because of a negative supply-side shock from the coronavirus, and its impact on capacity.

Investors have put a premium on safety in recent months amid a global market meltdown caused by panic related to the Global Pandemic, among other factors, according to global index provider FTSE Russell.

Covid-19 market impact assessment - a case of ‘the Good, the Bad and the Ugly’. This week’s briefing focuses on a review of global equity performance drawing upon findings from our Equity Markets Driver report published today, with Philip Lawlor, MD, Global Markets Research, FTSE Russell

12 years apart but similarities exist. In our quarterly performance update on factors, Philip Lawlor, MD, global markets research and Marlies van Boven, MD, research & analytics compare the impact of the Covid-19 and 2008 GFC corrections on factor behaviour.

In this very volatile market environment, dividend-paying companies may further benefit investors seeking quality and stability.

The Fed recently broadened the range of assets it will buy in Quantitative Easing (QE) programs, to include corporate bonds and sub-investment grade issues, supplementing US Treasuries and (agency) MBS

Philip Lawlor, managing director, Global Markets Research, FTSE Russell reviews Q1 2020 regional factor performance and examines the COVID–19 correction impact on factor behaviour.

The coronavirus shock, and enforced shutdowns, come after a period of high corporate debt issuance, in response to very low interest rates.

UK factor performance has strayed markedly from that of its global counterparts lately. Differing sector compositions and macro sensitivities, especially to moves in the US dollar, explain why.

Defensive factors outperformed their riskier counterparts globally in the first-quarter market maelstrom, led by stocks offering stable profits and low debt burdens.

The coronavirus pandemic has brought turmoil to financial markets and the entire US economy. The Non-Agency RMBS sector may be especially susceptible to the deterioration of the broader economy.

Charting the performance of real estate since the coronavirus pandemic.

This week Philip Lawlor, managing director, global markets research, assesses the impact of COVID-19, drawing upon some of the key observations from our latest Market Maps 'Fixed Income Insight' report and examining the status of the EPS and valuation cycle for equities.

We highlighted in our article last week that China's equity market had outperformed most developed and emerging equity markets since the beginning of the year.

Corporate credit spreads have increased sharply, led by energy, as the coronavirus shock developed, but the move in spreads should be seen against the underlying components of credit spreads

A look at how climate indexes have performed since coronavirus hit the markets

Government bond yields and yield curves proved highly volatile in March as the colossal, and unique, economic shock caused by the coronavirus unfolded globally.

Several monetary and fiscal policies have been announced within the G20 to combat the coronavirus shock.

What a difference a few months can make. Only last autumn, the FTSE 250 Index was standing out for significantly outperforming its larger counterpart, the FTSE 100 Index.

On all metrics, equity valuations are at multiyear lows. But until there's more clarity on the pandemic's impact on earnings, stock pricing is more noise than signal.

Russell 1000 Index factor returns for 2020 YTD tell a story of two markets and a notable flight to quality since the mid-February market top and subsequent broad-based selloff.

As the first country to confront and contain the coronavirus contagion, China's equity market and currency have sustained far less damage than most of its global peers.

The key takeaway behind the surge in Russell 1000 outperformance over the Russell 2000 this year: Stability rules in troubled times.

Assessing the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) to U.S. Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and CMBS market including both agency CMBS and non-agency CMBS.

Examining industry-weighted contributions to the total return regionally since the market peaked in February 19 highlights that financials have been the largest negative contributors across most regions.

US investors have been licking their wounds from their overseas returns as the weakness in non-US currencies have significantly affected returns.

Amid widespread losses, factor performances are exhibiting a strong preference for safety, catapulting Quality and Low Volatility into the lead over riskier Value and Size, writes Philip Lawlor, head of Global Markets Research. 

A wave of negative profit warnings looms. Bond-market signals and history can help dimension what's coming, says Philip Lawlor, head of global markets research.

Looking at the performance of the FTSE 100 Index and the FTSE 250 Index over the last twelve months shows that both markets have been badly impacted by the coronavirus sell-off.

Despite the huge global stimulus response by policy makers, the downturn in global equity markets has remained sizeable since they peaked on February 19. 

Looking at the performance of the Russell 1000 Index and the Russell 200 Index over the last six months shows that both markets have been badly impacted by the coronavirus sell-off.

G7 sovereign bond yields fell sharply in Q1, to all-time lows, as fixed income markets moved much faster than equity markets to discount a major economic shock, and possible recession, from the coronavirus contagion.

With global equities having lost up to 36% in performance since their peak on February 19, what does this mean for equity market valuations?

Since their peak on February 19, global equities have lost between 20-36% in performance as coronavirus fears sent investors into a panic.

Spike in US equity market volatility drives record volumes at the CME Group and Cboe Global Markets.

The coronavirus outbreak and subsequent market panic has turned investors into Donald Rumsfelds—attempting to price the ‘known unknowns’.

Philip Lawlor, managing director, global markets research, discussed the impact of the coronavirus on market returns and gauged its effect on the global economy, the credit cycle and market drivers, such as profits, valuations and factors.

FTSE Russell and Cboe experts examine the potential for US small cap market volatility in 2020 and implications for investors in a recent FTSE Russell Index IDEA.

There is a building awareness that the coronavirus is catching the global economy at a vulnerable stage, injecting uncertainty into the near-term outlook for the global economy.